Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.856767 1.004184 1.169298 1.367961 1.600579 1.864437 2.186627
2024-10-20 0.593067 0.778179 1.009860 1.321283 1.729386 2.246671 2.953423
2024-10-27 0.453054 0.644228 0.903183 1.279909 1.814906 2.549026 3.636031
2024-11-03 0.379513 0.576019 0.859830 1.300109 1.967566 2.944472 4.488875
2024-11-10 0.343828 0.552106 0.870058 1.391490 2.227948 3.522515 5.688670
2024-11-17 0.305801 0.516320 0.853953 1.435799 2.417448 4.014342 6.825394
2024-11-24 0.268730 0.474925 0.820809 1.444389 2.545897 4.420984 7.878011
2024-12-01 0.235269 0.433664 0.780527 1.432466 2.633939 4.766729 8.870600
2024-12-08 0.208328 0.399406 0.746645 1.425203 2.726308 5.128297 9.938875
2024-12-15 0.188470 0.374981 0.726505 1.439144 2.857699 5.575239 11.227514
2024-12-22 0.163928 0.337757 0.676841 1.388519 2.856102 5.767545 12.043421
2024-12-29 0.158733 0.338257 0.700244 1.485822 3.161929 6.601015 14.274395
2025-01-05 0.139026 0.306401 0.655246 1.438037 3.166065 6.833230 15.302871
2025-01-12 0.121904 0.277652 0.612938 1.390315 3.164556 7.056076 16.352952
2025-01-19 0.107506 0.252727 0.575226 1.346852 3.165364 7.282638 17.444360
2025-01-26 0.099697 0.241666 0.566593 1.368119 3.316797 7.866809 19.457263
2025-02-02 0.097648 0.243872 0.588507 1.464307 3.659106 8.939991 22.813479
2025-02-09 0.092508 0.237772 0.589957 1.510947 3.887421 9.773292 25.702803
2025-02-16 0.085697 0.226459 0.577161 1.519989 4.022410 10.395834 28.147618
2025-02-23 0.078485 0.213028 0.557178 1.507439 4.099275 10.881100 30.302513
2025-03-02 0.072263 0.201316 0.539994 1.499793 4.188076 11.409763 32.658536
2025-03-09 0.067645 0.193312 0.531466 1.514469 4.340157 12.128792 35.661155
2025-03-16 0.060658 0.177661 0.500209 1.461180 4.293727 12.297877 37.109238